What Is Expected value In Poker?

Expected value (EV) in poker is a very misunderstood concept. The purpose of this article is to explain expected value as simply as possible and to make you a better poker player by using expected value theory in your decision making process.

In Texas Holdem the expected value is used to calculate the amount of amount you can expect to win in an all in situation. It only applies to all in situations because you can know your opponents holdings and hence you can calculate the equity of two or more unique hand combinations.

Generally the concept of expected value is used in cash game calculations, as you can assign a dollar value to the EV, although the concept is still relevant to tournament play. This EV data is based on real data compiled over millions of hands and in real money games.

Lets look at an example. In a live $1/2 NL game, you are dealt Ac As in the dealer spot and you are playing 100bb deep. You raise and the player in the big blind re-raises and you proceed to get the money all-in preflop. When the cards are turned over, your opponent shows Ah Qc. In this match your pocket aces can expect to win 93% of the time. You are such a big favorite in this matchup because your opponent shares one of the same cards. If your opponent was to have a worse pocket pair, you can expect to win more then 80% of the time.

This calculated percentage of winning the hand is called your equity and it goes without saying that you will make loads of money with pocket aces. Of course we have all lost pocket aces but more often than not we will win the hand and if you have ever played Texas No Limit Holdem then you know that going all in pre-flop with pocket aces is the only time you can be sure to have the one up on all other players in the hand before you have seen a single card. It is expected value theory in Texas Holdem that can help you make a decision to go all in pre-flop (or not).

Even though it’s not possible to know your opponents card before going all-in, it is possible to calculate your equity against the range of hands you think your opponent is playing, and this is where experience plays a huge role. Wouldn’t you rather make a decision that at least you know that in the long run you have a positive expected value with a given hand and not a negative expected value? Sometimes it is just this little difference in expected value that can help you make more money playing poker in the long run.

As a general rule the better the expected value the better the chances of you eventually winning the hand. In other words if you have an EV of greater then 50% then your all in bet in this situation will win the hand often enough to make the all-in move the correct play.

Keep in mind that even hands with an EV greater than 50% will lose sometimes. But in the long run you will make money with them. Actually the hands with an EV = 50% will break even over time so I suggest that you play your hands which have a positive expected value as often as you can depending on the situation.

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